Sunday, April 17, 2011

Goldilocks, the Bulls, and the Bears

It was very hard to convince developers to change course during the real estate bull market. The market was too hot and they could not see the benefit of dismantling their well-oiled sprawl machine despite numerous studies proving the market preferred walkable communities. After the bubble burst the current bear market continues to be too cool for them to even think about building new. This despite the fact that most of the empty housing stock is of a format that is not preferred by the market.

As an aside, it has been very interesting to see the property value limbo played out every day in the housing market. How low can you go! I'm of the opinion that these houses will not sell at any price since they have nothing to offer. Poor location, no local amenities, poor construction, and declining values.

Too hot before, too cold now, when will the market reach the Goldilocks conditions and be 'just right'? From what I have seen the market is there. There are plenty of home-buyers active in the market that just can't find what they're looking for. They are choosing to rent an apartment and rents are soaring. They don't want the headaches and have chosen the apartment option because the only other viable option at their price-point is to buy in a neighborhood that is in decline.

Those looking to build new would be best served to spend some time with these renters and listen to their motivations and their concerns. There are plenty of solutions that could tap into this expanding market and potentially revitalize existing neighborhoods in the process. As a matter of fact the simplest solution has been around for at least 3,000 years and is still working everywhere it's tried.

Posted via email from Kenneth Hitchens

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